Monday, January 20, 2014
In the Science Matters column (U-B, Jan. 6) it is claimed science gained in computer modeling is hard to dispute.
That’s not quite the case. A massive amount of reporting is available that disputes modeling upon which the IPCC bases its climate projections.
Our planet had been recovering from the Little Ice Age since it began to end circa 1870. IPCC computer modeling erroneously factored in this warming as being driven by anthropogenic CO2 rather than a natural recovery, and then apparently input that trend into future climate projections which (erroneously) didn’t predict or detect the leveling off and cooling of the past 15-17 years. (Not to mention Climategate or Hockey Sticks.)
Google “73 UN climate models wrong, no global warming in 17 years” and you will find a report by John Christy, professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama. He compared real world temperatures with the models using data sets of actual temperatures recorded by the NASA-Goddard Institute, the UK’s Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and research by the University of East Anglia (Hadley-CRU), the NOAA, satellites measuring atmospheric and deep oceanic temps and found that “all show a lack of warming over the past 17 years.”
Patrick Michaels, director of the Cato Institutes’s Center for the Study of Science said, “And those 17 years correspond to the largest period of CO2 emissions by far over any other 17-year period in history.”
Michaels pointed out that 18 separate experiments published since Jan. 1, 2011, show the IPCC’s climate models are off by 46 percent when it comes to temperature CO2 sensitivity. “The pressure to warm the atmosphere by CO2 has somehow been canceled out completely by natural forces,” he said. “Surface temperature is simply not as sensitive to changes in CO2 as was assumed by the climate modeling community.”
Reaching the 17-year mark with no significant warming is a milestone. A climate change research team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory defined it as the minimum length of time necessary to “separate human-caused global warming from the ‘noise’ of purely natural climate fluctuations.” ”
Daniel Kish, vice president of the Institute for Energy Research, said, “We’ve had 17 years of no global warming, yet we have an energy policy that continues to harm American communities and will lead to much higher electricity prices.”
Unless turned around, the worst is yet to come.