Comment history

GeneandCassie says...

No tricks at all...... and don't have a parlor.....

Just working with data available; some from an article on the Wikipedia site and some from a suggested site to look at......

Ain't nuttin more real world than Wikipedia and wired.com........

GeneandCassie says...

The Miami article referenced previously mentions a 'rise of 3.7 inches in nineteen (19) years.....'

I compute an 'average annual rate of rise' of about 5 mm/year from this information....... I could carry the math out to the hundreths place; but will leave that exercise for others to do......

Not really much different from the 6mm/year value I also computed from the 'historic' average rate value based on the 20,000 years data........

GeneandCassie says...

Things do sound quite well defined regarding projected sea level rise:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/art...

Some say 'less than a foot' by 2100; others say 'three feet' by 2100....... factors of three, which are only minor differences......

Phrases in the above article like 'high level of uncertainty,' 'could,' and 'may' also suggest a well defined picture..... and the mention that 'exact numbers are a work in progress' is encouraging too......

Still don't see an actual 'annual rate of rise' mentioned but that probably has a 'high level of uncertainty' too.......

Probably is on the order of 6 mm/year........

GeneandCassie says...

This item from the United States Geological Survey suggests that 'sea levels' might have been perhaps 20 meters 'higher' than at present.......

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

'Ma Nature' is probably mumbling to herself, 'been there done that......'

GeneandCassie says...

'Ma Earth' is probably chuckling and mumbling to herself, 'been there done that' when it comes to rising sea levels......

This publication mentions 'sea levels' perhaps at one time being 20 meters 'higher' than they are at present.....

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs2-00/

Hopefully the U.S. Geological Survey's science is acceptable; knowing how tough the sea level arena presently is.......

GeneandCassie says...

And what exactly is the 'current rate of sea level rise' as calculated/predicted by the recent work done in Greenland????

A number would be helpful for the ongoing discussion; to help quantify the 'much faster' thoughts mentioned......

Why is 1850 any better a computational date to use as a basis????? Why not 1929?????

Or 2008?????

Unless the 'computed average' is carried out to more 'significant digits' this probably wouldn't be that big a difference to the bottom line.......

GeneandCassie says...

The Miami sea level article makes use of some of the 'techniques' contained in the book 'How to Lie With Statistics.....'

Like carrying out significant digits to give an illusion of accuracy.......

The article quotes values out to the 'nearest hundreth of an inch' which might be a tad much given the daily fluctuation in sea levels; usually several feet depending upon location......

All things are informative in their own way...... even a clock that doesn't run is correct twice a day......

Can't say a relocation to Miami is in the future for me but I do wish them well there......

GeneandCassie says...

I'm sure the six (6) mm / year 'average annual' rise computed over the past 20,000 years is quite a bit 'lower' than what 'Ma Nature' can produce on an annual basis when seen fit to do so........

And we quibble over causing small annual changes which presently center around 2.5 +/- mm a year........

We are but bit players in the scheme of things long term.......

GeneandCassie says...

Nope, the data used above is quite factual and realistic.......

I do have the book readily available though......

Just doing a rough 'reality check' on what rates of sea level rise have been noted over the past few decades or so...... 2,000 or so decades.........

And how the rates compare to presently accepted values.......

It does appear that the historic rates might be a tad higher than the ones noted presently........

GeneandCassie says...

Nope, but do have a copy of the book readily available........

Just giving a quick perspective of things related to rates of sea level rise over time.......

I don't think many will dispute that sea levels were once about 400 feet lower than at present; this happened about 20,000 years ago.......

Can then calculate an 'average rate of rise' from this information.......

And this 'average rate' is about twice that of the current estimates on annual sea level rise.......

Just a 'quick assessment' of the historic information available and how it compares to present data on the subject of sea level rise rates.........

The 'increasing rate of sea level rise' appears to be a hot topic lately and some historic perspective is warranted......